Author Topic: Texas All-Time Programs update/prediction  (Read 728 times)

stanleytree

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Texas All-Time Programs update/prediction
« on: February 05, 2019, 11:16:52 AM »
I'm out sick today, and since I don't want to start working yet I figured I'd revisit one of my favorite projects I've done- the all-time ranking for Texas decathlon programs since 1990.

For a quick recap- using formula 1-style scoring (1st-25, 2nd-18, 3rd-15, 4th-12, 5th-10, 6th-8, 7th-6, 8th-4, 9th-2, 10th-1), plus a system of scores for # of appearances (1 point each for first ten, 2 points each for 11-20, 4 points each for 20-30), I attempted to reward both the highest finishes as well as consistency of appearing at state.  So the most a team can currently get for a state appearance+state championship is 29 points (25 for 1st+4 for 30th appearance).  Katy Taylor, Nimitz, Plano Senior, J.J. Pearce, Plano East are all eligible for the 30th appearance, which would mean next year I would need to consider how to add beyond the 30th appearance.

Top 30:
1   James E. Taylor   356
2   Dobie   323
3   Friendswood   313
4   Nimitz   263
5   Plano Senior   251
6   J.J. Pearce   219
7   Pearland   171
8   Highland Park   161
9   Rockwall   159
10   Garland   158
11   Lubbock   145
12   Holmes   140
13   Plano East   129
14   Clements   117
15   Seven Lakes   102
16   Keller   101
17   Coppell   81
18   Marcus   80
19   Deer Park   75
20   Dulles   64
21   King   62
22   Berkner   59
23   New Caney   57
24   Lake Highlands   48
25   Rockwall-Heath   44

So what major changes could we see based on the results from round 1?
* Starting from the top- Taylor isn't relinquishing that any time soon.  As long as they keep performing, they should be able to keep Dobie and Friendswood off of their back.
* Friendswood may be able to jump Dobie, but it would take a 4th place finish or higher with Dobie not placing in the top ten- doable for sure.
* Doesn't seem that Nimitz, Plano or Pearce will move much; however, Pearland, Highland Park, and Rockwall could all make significant gains this year and get closer to reaching the top 5.  Will still be a few years, but HP and Rockwall in particular look primed to make some serious gains.  Pearland showed up at r.1, I will be curious to see if they can build on that improvement.
*Lubbock looks destined to jump Garland, but it will be tough if Garland makes it to state.  They could also close some of the gap to Rockwall & HP, but Pearland will still be a decent chunk ahead of them.  If they get first, they could jump right up there with the rest of that group.
*Plano East could jump Holmes if they finish top 5 and Holmes does not qualift
*Seven Lakes could jump Clements if they place top 3 and Clements fails to return to state.  The Clements team this year looks like they could make it a close call, let's see if they can get back.
*Coppell and Marcus could close the gap to Keller if they place top ten, but will still be a long climb.  Coppell is still a mystery- they could be anywhere from 1st to not at state at all.
*Dulles seems likely to jump Deer Park, and can possible get over Coppell and Marcus with a 1st place.  Seems tough.
*Heath could jump significantly with a top-3 finish.  They could get all the way past Dulles with a first place finish.
*Beyond the top 25, a few teams to look out for with big jumps are Northside Marshall (35th), Lubbock Monterey (44th), Pasadena Memorial (148th), Lebanon Trail (194th).  Lebanon Trail especially looks like they'll be competing for top 10, top 5 appearances.  That will be a huge boost into the top 100.

Excited to see how everything shakes out this year!
Pearland HS, 2007-08
State Champion, Varsity Individual/Team- 2008

Coach at Dulles HS, 2015-present
Region Champions, 2016, '18
Large School State Champion, 2017, '18

Dan

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Re: Texas All-Time Programs update/prediction
« Reply #1 on: February 05, 2019, 09:11:00 PM »
I do enjoy reading your program updates. Get well.
I love deadlines. I love the whooshing noise they make as they go by.
 ―  Douglas Adams

stanleytree

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Re: Texas All-Time Programs update/prediction
« Reply #2 on: February 06, 2019, 07:14:01 AM »
Thanks!  I also failed to mention Flower Mound who could make a big jump if they stay top 5.
Pearland HS, 2007-08
State Champion, Varsity Individual/Team- 2008

Coach at Dulles HS, 2015-present
Region Champions, 2016, '18
Large School State Champion, 2017, '18